TARP Repayments

What's wrong Timmy boy? Decided not to sell those Citigroup shares that were supposed to make the Treasury a "profit"?

Quick question: Why have both Wells Fargo and Citigroup worked so hard to pay back the TARP funds? Well, the end of the year is coming, of course. It's bonus time! I would not be surprised to see the banksters pay themselves huge bonuses in Janruary and then go back to the government for more bailouts later in the year.

You're going to have egg on your face, Mr. Obama. After all, you picked Timmy Geithner.

I think I want to add some more shorts to the Asian bubble. I'm going to look at possibly buying a couple more put options on FXI like the one I already have.

I would like to congratulate Mr. Bernanke on being acclaimed by Time magazine as "Man of the Year." Time is the best contrarian indicator on the planet. Everything inside is useless socialist excrement. But the cover is priceless.

Doctor Shortage

The doctor shortage has been caused by Congress, in an idiotic bid to control costs.

Last year, there were 16,721 fewer primary-care doctors than needed
in inner city and rural areas, according to the U.S. Health and Human Services Department. Residencies, the hospital based-training doctors undergo before they can practice medicine on their own, have been capped by Congress at about 90,000 since 1997 as a way to curb rising medical costs. (Bloomberg)

ARE YOU FUCKING KIDDING ME? CONGRESS DECIDES HOW MANY RESIDENCIES HOSPITALS CAN HAVE? Why does it take Bloomberg so long to report this?

Yesterday, I saw some Lyndon LaRouche commie nutbags with signs saying "Stop Hitler Health Care" and pictures of Obama with a Hitler mustache. At first I was outraged that Hitler's evil was being dismissed with this comparison. But now maybe I'm not so sure they're overreacting.

Fictitious Capital

Along with paying back the TARP so that the Obama administration can hold a phony "gain", Citigroup got a special deal from the IRS. They get to keep $38 billion in tax breaks against future earnings. The reason for this is because if they didn't get to keep it, their capital would have been eroded and they would not have been able to pay back the TARP, according to the Washington Post.

Talk about fake capital. Tell me we are not Japan.

Where is the change, Mr. Obama?

Taking the Loss on Ford

Well, my short on Ford was not a good idea. The auto sales numbers in Europe, which I should have considered when I made the short have been up three months in a row now. Ford sells a lot in Europe. Even though U.S. sales have struggled since the expiration of "cash for clunkers", the rest of the world is important for Ford. Also, GM announced that it expects to pay back part of the government funds. If GM is leaving the bailouts too early for political reasons (people are sick of bailouts, and CEO's want to get paid) then that's also good for Ford.

Buy to cover 7% F @ $9.37, - 26%.

On to other stuff, the gold charts look good for GLD, ABX, and IAG, in that order. NG's chart doesn't look as good. ABX has more support, while IAG clearly has tremendous momentum.

Buy 10% IAG @ $16.53

Crapitalism!

Read this and tell me that cap & trade isn't really a way for government to give corporations the right to levy a hidden tax on everyone.

Obama’s Climate Push Plays Catch-Up With Executives.

Funny

I just realized something today. The job report was better than expected, which was good news, so the dollar went up.

So my short of stocks and long on bonds will probably only work when the economy really does start recovering....
... and I'm not sure about the bonds in that case.

But I've got to stick with the bonds, because credit really is still contracting. The oil short will have to work eventually, as storage will run out and extra supply has to hit the market eventually.

On the other hand, the dollar devaluation will boost business overseas, and help recovery...

So, I basically have no clue what's going on.

Dead as a Doornail!

The Service Industry indicator came out and signalled a "surprise" contraction.

Worse yet, same store sales for November dropped 0.3%. While the journalist does remind us that this is a comparison with last year's financial meltdown panic numbers, he forgets something very important. The same store sales numbers DON'T INCLUDE THE THOUSANDS OF STORES THAT WERE CLOSED IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS! How about 600-700 Circuit City stores for starters? How about that 20% shopping mall vacancy rate? On the other side, Apple is not a retailer, according to same store sales, even though the Apple store is probably the most popular place in the mall, as well as the point of sale of most Apple products.

In this economy, same store sales is a terrible proxy for the health of the consumer. Sales tax comparisons are much better, and most states have been showing declines in the teen or twenties for months now.

Target, for example, was down 10.4% last November, and another 1.5% this year. All this means one thing: deflation. Abercrombie and Fitch dropped 17%, which would have taken the cake, except for Saks which raced away with a 26% drop.

The consumer is dead as a doornail.