Tuesday, September 21, 2010

Short-term outlook

The Fed has spoken, and nothing is changed. That is, they re-iterated their readiness to buy bonds if further economic weakness manifests. Here is how the markets reacted:

Gold is up. To $1,290, a new record. No surprise here.

The S&P 500 failed to keep its hold on 1,140. Call me cocky, but I'll make the risky call of one-day wonder in regards to yesterday's breakout.

The 30-yr Treasury bond broke through resistance last Thursday, and what a one-day wonder that was. Just look at the chart (courtesy of Yahoo!).
So, basically, we have a situation where I see stagnant economic growth, along with failed equity breakouts.
I expect gold to continue its strength, along with bonds, and for equities to slide to the bottom of the trading range they've been in all year. Until further news makes the economic outlook clearer, it's too early to tell whether the S&P 500 will go any further than technical support levels at 1,040.

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