Monday, March 15, 2010

Waiting Game

I feel pretty calm about the market right now. I've moved up to 70% invested in the options account, and am just looking for bargains now. My trigger finger on ULE is getting a little itchy, as I can see traders taking massive bets against the Pound. The bets are 8 to 1 bearish. So I'm looking for some less travelled paths. My short exposure at 50% is rather moderate for the current market feel. I don't really want to increase my short equity exposure above , so I'm leaning toward sticking with my current positions. However, I am tempted to rotate into more volatile, specific instruments. One thought is to close SKF (ultrashort financials) and short AGO. I just checked Schwab, and I can short it. With the continued pressure on municipality, city, and state finances, I think AGO's ability to pay out on claims it never expected will come into question. I would like to play this with a put option, because I have no feel for timing, but at 60, the implied volatility is stratospheric. In fact, I may just short AGO as an added position tomorrow.

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