Wednesday, February 24, 2010

Housing Market and Greece

New housing sales fell to an all-time low in January. The market's now fallen almost 90% from the peak of 2.5 million in 2005. In addition, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac continue to lose billions every quarter. The FHA is almost out of capital to lend. The FDIC already is.

With the market in a 5-month topping formation, and the VIX at 20, I'm looking to load up on options. I want to take my option exposure (which is only 4% of my investments) from 30% (of that) to 70%.

I'm looking at EWA puts (play on Australia/commodity/China slowdown), SPY puts, KBH puts (no rebound in housing market), AGO puts (as a way to play muni defaults), IAG calls (upside to gold).

In other news, capital is fleeing Greece. I should have seen this coming. The Euro makes it very difficult to stop capital flight. All anyone needs is a bank outside Greece. Then you just transfer Euros over. 25% of the major accounts has already fled what people are sure will be higher taxes.

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