Friday, February 26, 2010

Greek Solution?

The Financial Times is reporting a possible solution to the Greek solvency crisis. The solution involves a back-door bailout of Greece through the German banks. The German banks continue to buy enough Greek debt to allow Greece to refinance. The Greek government enacts austerity measures. The German government gives the banks guarantees on new Greek debt they buy.

This solution sounds like it will work. The banks have an incentive to lend to Greece, while still keeping their government on a short leash. The German government doesn't have to worry about German banks losing on a Greek default.

I will close EUO on Monday. In fact, I may very well buy the Euro, or maybe a call on the Euro. I believe that this solution is strongly bullish for the Euro.

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