Humble Pie

Time to eat some humble pie, as April was my worst month ever, at -22%. The positive thing is that with the leverage I was carrying, it wasn't worse.

The main problem is definitely twofold. First of all, my decision to keep holding Treasury bonds was deeply flawed. Second was my decision to ignore my thinking that the Stress Test plan would prevent bad news for coming out for a month. Third was my general idea to go charging ahead when I had know idea of where I was.

Part of this problem is understanding myself. I know that I can become very stubborn and hold something longer than I should, either on the winning or losing side. Another troublesome trait is my tendency towards analysis-paralysis. I'm always going to be wrong about something and I won't have all the information. But I have to do something anyway. In the future, I need to go into positions with a clearer idea of why I'm taking them and what will invalidate my reasoning.

So, where are we now? It's very hard to tell where the global economy goes from here, as the numbers show small improvements. Also, the U.S. banks are still insolvent. They are arguing with the government over the stress test results.
Part of me want to just dump my Treasuries, FXP and my short on EWY, the Korean exchange, and start over this month. Part of me also believes that there's still a lot of overconfidence in the system right now.