To Bond or Not To Bond
So, I don't like how my Treasuries are treating me. I'm going to write down the pros and cons.
Contra:
- First thing against bonds is the massive Treasury borrowing.
- Then there's the fact that a faltering economy is causing a 7% drop in income tax receipts, exacerbating the supply problem.
- Also, every big job loss announcement leads to a bond selloff as more government printing is expected to offset the losses.
- Fed buying bonds. Unfortunately, this muddies the market and is probably a negative. If the Fed has to print to lower rates, then who would want to hold them at those rates?
- The Fed printing can hold down rates, but that means that those lower rates are causing weakness in the dollar.
- China has stopped buying a lot of bonds. If their economy recovers, they'll probably buy more commodities. If it doesn't, they won't be buying Treasuries anyway.
Pro:
- If the economy recovers, dollar stays strong. If the economy weakens, the rest of the world is worse off, and the dollar gets even stronger. A strong dollar will make bonds more attractive.
- Everyone hates bonds and thinks they're in a bubble.
- The real rate of return is huge, as CPI is really -5%.
- Bonds have sold off during this huge inflation rally that started in February.
- Credit card defaults are going parabolic.
- Commercial real estate defaults are going parabolic.
- There's been a huge run into risk over the past couple of months.
My biggest problem here is that there's no reflexive, self-reinforcement working in my favor here. If anything, we've got a situation where any good news for bonds is killed by the Fed printing more money. I need to get out. But this is not the time. I need to wait for a more bearish sentiment to reappear.
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