Bullshit!

Screw this. I'm not making any changes to my portfolio. None. If anything, I need to leverage up more.

Everything I've read over the weekend tells me this is a bull trap.

Market down, but bank stocks up, as traders try to just hold on for the earnings announcements. COF is at $18.42. This is ridiculous. That makes the market cap 3.5 times revenue. Revenue? Are you kidding me? This has got to be a joke.

I'm even going to hold onto my bonds. They're just trading with the stock market. I saw numbers on a chart from Mish that showed Goldman Sachs is doing 52% of all program trading for stocks, and 75% of that is for themselves. If only one firm is doing all that, where's the market liquidity? What will Goldman do after they unload all that equity crap on some unsuspecting suckers? They'll buy bonds of course. Also, all the surveys are showing lots of bullish sentiment. Bullshit, I tell you.

My instinct tells me to throw a couple of grenades into the cave instead of running in and trying to hide from the bull stampede.

What about earnings (losses) season? Analysts predict a 38% fall from last year. And the Russell 2000 rallies 36% into that? Pardon me for being skeptical, but I just don't buy it. And if I don't buy it, I should sell it.

Inventories are still too high. Oil is at $53, but VLCC rates are $10K. There's no demand for oil, except as an inflation hedge. Copper is at a 6-month high, but the Baltic Dry Index is back down under 1,500 from its dead-cat-bounce high of 2,400. And if the market thinks Bernanke and Geithner are going to devalue-the-dollar our way out of this mess, then how are emerging markets rallying along with this story?

Nothing I see is sustainable. Take China, for instance. The government has targeted loans of 5 trillion yuan this year. They've already hit that this year, through March. Loans were up 700%, and the money supply +26%. Run to gold, I say. They will get inflation. This should be good for Chinese stocks in term of Yuan, but not in terms of dollars. I was thinking of getting rid of FXI, but China's equity market is at an 8-month high. Bullshit!

Just look at U.S. railroad data: down 20% from last year, according to Railfax. Autos, -44%, even food is down -18%. Coal (those dirty bastards) is only down 8%. Maybe I'll look at them more closely. If the U.S. keeps devaluing the dollar, they can just export all the coal to China, no matter how high the carbon taxes get. I will keep eye out for an opportunity to buy on dips and more carbon tax news.

So, I will read today's news. Next, I will do a leverage/allocation analysis of my portfolio. Finally, I will consider trades up to a 300% total equity position. First thought is short COF to double down. Second thought is short more DIG. Update will follow.