Friday, November 30, 2007

Health of Banking Industry

Today, I saw the following excerpt on SeekingAlpha:
Banks See Delinquent Loans Rise 23.8% (Inman News, Nov. 28th): "FDIC's Quarterly Banking Survey: The 8,560 institutions it insures
boosted their reserves by 7% during Q3, to $87 billion. It was the largest
quarterly increase in reserves in 18 years, but failed to keep pace with a
"sharp rise" in delinquent loans, the report said. Residential mortgage loans were the focal point of the deterioration in asset quality, said FDIC Chairman Sheila Bair, but delinquency and loss rates were up across all major loan categories. Noncurrent loans were up 23.8% from Q2, to $83B-- the largest increase in 20 years. More than half the increase was attributed to residential real estate loans. Noncurrent residential mortgage loans were up 27.2%, to $35B, while noncurrent home equity lines of credit were up 27.4%, to about $1B."

Bottom line is this score for last quarter:
Delinquency: $16 Billion
Banks: $6 Billion

The banks are falling behind fast. Their reserves are not high enough to cover any additional non-performing loans, and they will have to raise billions every quarter next year precisely when credit is getting most expensive. The outlook for consumer and business credit is not good when the banks have no money to lend. The Fed can try to step in and print money for them to lend, but that money will flow out of the country faster then they can print it. It will only make the situation worse in the long run.

2 Comments:

At 6:42 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

This Blog is awesome. You should try one in English too!

AY AY AY! I live on CALIENTE street!

 
At 2:18 PM, Blogger The Obfuscation Oracle said...

muchos gracias! ¿puedo pedir un préstamo?

 

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