Where are we in the credit crunch? (2)

This article from Bloomberg prompts me to ask this question again. Where are we? Well, according to Goldman Sachs, losses may reach $400 billion. I remember seeing a figure of about $70 billion in already announced losses. However, I have seen much higher estimates in Barron's. The estimate was $1-1.5 trillion out of the $30 trillion in outstanding mortgages. Unfortunately, I believe that this estimate is also inadequate. How could $1-1.5 trillion in losses stay "contained" in the mortgage sector? I believe that the truth will prove to be even harsher. However, let's take $1.5 trillion as a good estimate and see where that puts us in the ole ball game. Hmmm... We're at two outs in the top of the first. It's going to be a looooong game.