thoughts

It seems that the market is suffering more from depression than panic lately. As a result of this, I will hang on to my shorts. I bought MCGC yesterday because it was at its yearly low, yielding 14%. Unlike ALD, they announced strong earnings last quarter and they use less leverage. Their dividend should be safe.

I think another “scare” is imminent given that the ABX index led the Aug 16th plunge by ~6 weeks. We're at about 7 weeks of downslide now. Overall levels are much lower. I expect something big to break soon. Actually, we got it today with Fannie and Freddie, but the broad market expressed no fear. When the next panic comes, the dollar will rally, the DOW will nosedive, and there might even be some bargains out there. This will be a great chance to get out of the dollar. If the market just stays depressed, I will look to rotate out of homebuilder shorts into as yet undamaged financials when BV's approach 50%. Other than that, I can just wait. I am very happy with my portfolio.