Friday, October 12, 2007

Chinese...

trade surplus up 56% year over year. The question is: is Chinese inflation a self-reinforcing trend? Seems like it is. China prints money to keep Yuan undervalued, which causes accelerating inflation. That inflation is causing the rise of imports to China faster than exports from China. I believe that this policy is one that the Chinese government will pursue as long as they possibly can. The limiting factor(s) could be social unrest caused by inflation, a concerted effort by developed world central banks to raise rates enough to slow economies and kill China's trade surplus, or another unforseen factor.

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