just waiting...

There's nothing new with my positions. More bad news on housing. The housing market is now over $2.3 trillion smaller than it was in 2005, down 52% in total sales from $4.5 trillion. The investment banks have had their post scare bounce, and will just slide for a long time. Their earnings will suffer for at least the next year. Not only will they struggle to find new business, but all their comps will come up against all-time earnings highs. Retail will tank just in time for Christmas, as consumers were still getting 6% of their yoy purchasing power from mortgage equity withdrawals until August.

Predictions: We will go into recession (officially) beginning of next year. The dollar will hit new lows. Who will lend to people who don't pay them back? Gold might actually be a good thing to be in if all currencies fall. This could be the case if there are two types of currencies left: debtor countries who won't pay (USA) and bagholders who hold worthless paper (Chindia, OPEC). UK/EU are a bit of both. In this scenario, all currencies might fall against gold. We'll have to wait and see. I'm not ready to just on the train just yet.