Tuesday, October 02, 2007

What is the strength behind commodities?

I've been rethinking my stance on commodities lately. With the U.S. dollar plunging, inflation in China will soon get out of control. In anticipation of this, I have done an about face on RIO from short to long. What kept me from this play before was the spectre of U.S. recession starting sometime over the next six months.

My thinking was that a U.S. recession would hammer stocks like RIO. However, I now believe that the dollar will drop even more. Why? Because China refuses to break their dollar peg. This means that they will continue printing money. A recession here will further exacerbate inflation in China. As the dollar weakens further on the back of the slumping U.S. economy, China's economy will continue to get proportionately stronger, fueling the run into commodities even faster.

When will this pressure subside? Possibly only when the dollar peg is broken, and China decides to export their inflation through a rising Yuan.

The money has to go somewhere, and I think I've just understood where it's been going. The question is whether or not it will continue, and I think it will, as long as there's pressure on the Yuan to go up.

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