Thursday, August 17, 2006

More on PDC...

PDC does have it's downside, admittedly. Natural gas inventories cannot keep growing forever. Right now, we are in a vicious cycle where spot prices are kept high by future prices. As long as future prices hold up, spot prices will continue to rise. For the next six months or so, I think PDC will make a killing. It remains to be seen what they do with their money. So far, they are putting it toward capital expenditures. Right now, any downside is limited by their price ($6.65 end of March 2004). Now PDC is at less than double the price ($13.00) but gross profit is up 685%. They have no debt. EBITDA is up 523% over last year. Adjusting share price for cash, they trade at 4.7 times cash flow. These stats are my downside protection.

What would happen if they decided to buy back shares or issue a dividend?

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