Monday, August 14, 2006

from Barron's Market Watch

Barron's Market Watch is "a sampling of advisory opinion." Here's my favorite from this week. Dr. Ed's morning briefing states that "Global Competition and solid productivity growth should keep inflation in check."

I strongly disagree. First, import prices are up 7% over the last twelve month. Competition is not lowering prices any more. (This is also an indication of what an honest inflation number would be close to.) Second, record productivity levels haven't kept inflation from accelerating in the past two quarters. With productivity at record levels, I see a much steeper downside than upside.

I like AAB.WS. It's a warrant on a basket of Asian currencies that matures in 18 months. It's really an option product. It trades like a stock, but with 6.5 times leverage. I put some in the practice account and am considering it for real. I think it's a good play when the dollar tanks. But maybe gold will be better. I'll have to think about it.

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