In Another Sign

that there is a bubble in the risk carry trade, Short-Term US Interest Rates Turn Negative. Traders and banks are so sure that inflation will pop up that they are crowding into short-term Treasuries. No one want to hold the long term bonds.

It seems that the Fed's zero interest rate policy is restrictive compared to the market. Barron's poll of big money finds 65% of managers bearish on Treasuries, and only 8% on oil. Sounds like somethings already priced in.

Just waiting patiently for the catalyst.