Monday, November 09, 2009

Copper and China

The looming oversupply in copper is getting too large to ignore. Bloomberg is reporting that buyers for copper in China can't be found, as Xi'an Maike estimates 985,000 tons is in storage. Sounds like a looming crash to me. It's time to buy FXP, short FXI, or maybe even both. Such a collossal mispricing cannot be ignored, as copper trades at 120% higher than a year ago. 350,000 tons sits in duty-free warehouses and may be re-exported to avoid paying the import duty. Another way to play this would be to short FCX, Freeport-McMoran Copper and Gold, or PCU (Southern Copper) which has an outrageous P/E of 67. FCX doesn't have one because it lost $31/share over the last year.

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