Simplification

On one hand, we have bad fundamentals for the stock market as well as the global economy.

On the other hand, we have enormous credit and money expansion.

This comes mostly from China.

So we need to watch China. We could watch the Chinese equity market. But that's risky, because it's so obvious that everyone else will be watching it as well.

Maybe we should watch the Baltic Dry Index, as a lot of the credit expansion has been used to stockpile raw materials.

What to do? Well, probably just wait out my turn of direction, until I see some clear sign that credit is being tightened. Which means action, not just talk from central bankers.