Thursday, July 02, 2009

Deflation

More deflationary signs. I just remembered reading that Australia's exports of coal to China had dropped precipitously. So much so that trade went into a deficit last month. This makes me think about shorting some FXI or buying FXP. Lending in China is unsustainable, not being used for anything economically productive, and ridiculous.

The question is, when does this roll over? I'm starting to get a gut feeling that deflation has overcome central bank printing and will start carrying the field in the near term.

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