Jobs

No wonder consumer confidence fell. The ADP job report showed a loss of 473K. This is a slight improvement from 485K in May. But far short of green shoots expectations of only 393K lost.

So far the news is playing out as I expected. Green shoots data has disappointed. The dollar is weak as Bernanke says "no inflation." Treasuries have run back up, as people realize the economy is not recovering. They're back to falling today, as they may have hit their high for the next few months. Mortgage applications have fallen to a 7 month low, as higher rates discourage refinancing.

The stock market is up, but so is oil. Gold has fallen a little, but should jump as soon as Bernanke starts printing again.

I need to do an allocation assessment, and then I may buy TBT today.