Craziness

So, apparently the futures market is pricing in a 66% chance of a 0.50% rate hike by the Fed later this year. Really? Are you kidding me? No, really? This shows a real recovery without inflationary side effects poisoning the green shoots (I think).

Here's what I'm sure about:

1. The job market is terrible. The ADP employment report is much more accurate than the BS (not a typo) stats that get the headlines. The unemployment rate will be over 10% in the next two months.
2. The consumer is (and will remain) much more interested in saving than spending.
   

So, if the market is pricing in a rate hike, are 30-yr. Treasuries pricing in as much inflation as they can? I think so. Time to sell TBT.

Sell TBT @ $57.11, +13%.