Monday, March 23, 2009

Trades!

First, a word about Tim Geithner's ponzi scheme to loot the taxpayers in order to enrich government cronies and wealthy well-connected people. Paul Krugman explains it better than I can. All I can add is that it remains to be seen how to bridge the gap between the 30 bid and the 80 ask on most of the toxic crap on bank balance sheets. What this really is, is a payoff to both the banks and the hedge fund industry.
The FDIC is being used as the conduit to funnel money to the banks through non-recourse loans to hedge funds and other asset managers.

On to my portfolio: unfortunately, today I got killed on my international shorts, which have rallied very strongly since the recent lows in U.S. stocks. I'm afraid that Bernanke's devaluation of the dollar has caused a flight to other markets. I didn't see that coming.

Trades:

I couldn't resist selling into this rally, so I closed SFL and shorted homebuilders and oil.

sold SFL @ $6.97, +60%
sold short DIG @ $25.18
sold short KBH @ $12.93

I sold SFL because $7 was my target price, based on book value.
I sold short DIG because I wanted to short oil here. I think that shorting the ultralong will give me a return, not just for a drop in oil prices, but also for a drop in price volatility.
I sold KBH because of the drop in home prices, which was much bigger than the jump in sales. Overall, the market is still shrinking rapidly.

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