Thursday, March 12, 2009

Disaster or Opportunity?

Since the beginning of February, when President Obama announced his intention to institute a carbon cap and carbon trading, the utilities have sold off by 20-40%. Everyone's afraid of the increased costs that will be hoisted onto the utilities. Will this be a disaster for the utilities?

Let's look at some other industries that suffered "disasters."
What about oil tankers after the Exxon Valdez disaster?
Or cigarette companies after the government lawsuit?

Were these "disasters" or opportunities?


The big news today is that Congress is considering legislation to do away with mark-to-market accounting. If this happens, it will be very bullish for banks short-term. Long-term, the picture is cloudier. I personally think that a good compromise would be to eliminate mark-to-market and tighten off-balance sheet loopholes to bring much of that back on the books. However, it is still possible that the elimination of mark-to-market accounting will not change much. It may eliminate some distressed sales of MBS and CDO's, but it may not make banks more willing to lend.

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