Tuesday, February 03, 2009

Trade

I just bought a 40% position in 30-yr US Treasuries @ a yield to maturity of 3.59%.

Why? Because the inflation theme is out of control. The inflationistas are going nuts, what with $2 trillion big bang bad bank bailout plans, $800 billion stimulus plans, and $500 quarterly federal deficits. Alright, looks pretty scary.

But what about the other side of the coin? Deflation is running at an 8.4% annual rate. Add in 3.6% and, Voila! 12%. As Cramer says, "Boo-Yah!" What about credit? Bank lending is down at a 5.6% annual rate. And it's not just banks, demand from lenders is declining as well.

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