Tuesday, January 27, 2009

"Test" or Smoke and Mirrors?

Bloomberg is reporting on the state of the commercial paper market. There is hope that the market is becoming less dependent on the Fed's CPFF. The market faces a "test" over this week and next, as $245 billion of government bought paper matures. Currently, the Fed is charging a punitive 2.24%. The market rate is 2.15%, but that has jumped from 0.28% on Janruary 8th, "as investors prepared to absorb" the oncoming supply. I also think the current earnings malaise might have something to do with this as well. Would you want to lend to a company with negative cash flow? Not me. I think investors will be very picky about who they lend to. And they should be. So who's been buying? "Assets in money-market funds reached a record high of $3.92 trillion on Jan. 14, according to the Investment Company Institute." Of course, they are backed by the MMIFF. This program is designed to buy assets from money market funds in the event of another paralysis of the market such as the one that occurred after the Lehman bankruptcy. This program is very confusing as can be seen by the Terms and Conditions. However, it seems to me to be a backup system that makes it safer for money market funds to buy commercial paper than it is for individual investors. Unfortunately, it is impossible for me to know what kind of effect it has on the buying habits of money market managers.

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