Shipping

This is an excerpt from Fearnleys report on shipping. Capitallinkshipping has these reports weekly.

Cape market continuing with zero activity and there is simply no spot market. Owners realising that firm cargoes are almost impossible to find
and a large number of ships (we guestimate around 100 ships) are kept
in waiting-positions, mostly in the Far East. For expensive tc ships this situation is disastrous and the much discussed counterpart risk is becoming increasingly serious. However FFA settlements of end last week
were concluded apparently without serious casualties. The cape index rate
still easing and the tc spot index now stand at usd 4193. Some bargain
hunters looking for modern capers and for 12 mos talking rates in the low usd 20 000.

Charter rates are now at $10,000 from a high of $185,000 this year. That's a 95% drop. Diana Shipping suspended their dividend going forward. In related news, shipping container inflows to the US are predicted to fall over 7% in 2009.

I don't see how I can be bullish on much except bailouts, the US dollar, and long-term Treasuries until the credit deflation shows some sign of easing. Right now, theres no good news that is not related to government guarantees and intervention.