Wednesday, October 29, 2008

Credit Crunch Continues

I realized today what I was doing without thinking about it recently. Or rather I've been thinking about it, but I haven't explicitly posted it here yet.

What I've been doing is using the Baltic Dry Index as a measure of trade, and therefore the credit crunch. LIBOR doesn't show what's really happening, because all the major banks are guaranteed by various governments now. But trade doesn't happen without letters of credit, and markets can't even begin to recover until trade can happen. The BDI was down another 5.8% today, to 925. This is much more bearish for emerging markets than for the US. Therefore my short positions in emerging markets.

Two trades: short Brazil (EWZ) at $33.71 and short oil via DUG (ultrashort oil) at $39.57

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