Posted on Russ Winter's Actionable

This is a response to Russ's assertion that US coal companies are cheap and its time to buy. They are cheap, no doubt about that. However, I think it may be too early. See below. Nota bene: no link has been provided to Russ Winter's Actionables, as it is a subscriber-only service. See WallStreetExaminer.

Russ,
The commodity crack-up-boom was one of the great frauds in human history. Copper still trades 30% higher in Shanghai than in Singapore. Why? Because the biggest industry in the entire world, bigger than all Chinese manufacturing put together was the Chinese printing-and-laundering-through-commodities bubble. See NY Times: “when adjusted for inflation and the Chinese currency’s rise against the dollar, Chinese exports actually fell 0.5 percent in August from a year earlier, and are likely to be flat for September.” China Daily reported back in Jan. of this year that “China’s coal imports rose 34 percent to 51.02 million tons last year, according to customs statistics.” US Energy Info Admin. reports that for Q1′08, US coal exports rose 41%. Europe is the biggest buyer.

Conclusion: Coal prices will plunge by the end of the year.Russ, I think you have the right idea here, but I think you’re too early.