Friday, August 15, 2008

What to Do?

Oil keeps sliding (down to $111 today) but DUG's still below where I sold it. Gold is being pummeled, and I'm regretting not dumping it earlier.

I don't like a few of my positions: GG, TBT, ACI, even ALD. We're seeing a real bubble pop here, and my timing is really off here.

So, what do I do about this? Buy bonds? I'm thinking of just switching my bond position here, and leaving the rest for next week. Even though commodities are plunging, I think I'll hold on to GG and ACI for now. The market's at a turning point, and there will be a lot of turbulence.

Looking on the bright side, I really like my financials, homebuilders, and retail shorts.

One part of me wants to dump the things I don't like. If I don't like them, why keep them?
The reason I don't like losing with them is because I don't like them anyway. It doesn't bother me when KBH jumps 8% in a day, because I like my longer-term prospects. However, it bothers me when GG is down 5% because I'm starting to wish I was on the other side of the trade.

On the other hand, I feel like I'm throwing caution, patience, and trading discipline by just dumping things wholesale. Well, I think I'm going to try it and see how it works out.

By the way, yesterday, I sold ITB short at $15.

The dollar has really rallied a lot: the Euro's down to $1.46 and the Pound to $1.86.

So, here are today's trades:

Sold TBT @ $66.75

Bought $17,000 of US 30-yr Treasuries at ytm of 4.49%.

My computer is not cooperating, so as I'm not using any margin for the larger bond position, I'll sell GG and ACI later.

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