Tuesday, August 05, 2008

Reversing Course!

For the past month, my focus has been on a coming deflationary wave hitting crack-up-boom stocks. Just last week, I shorted DUG the Ultrashort Oil ETF. Well, I closed that one today for a 14% gain. I also bought a position in ACI (Arch Coal). Barron's is a good barometer of the smart money. Well, when they have an article about how the long-short mutual funds are shorting ACI, POT, and BTU, you know that any deflation in the next six months is priced in. On top of that, there were several more articles and research reports that mentioned "deflaion" and "slowdown" over and over again. So, I closed the short oil position, and I opened ACI. It's down 40% since the end of June. 40%! Year-over-year earnings growth is up over 200%. With a 7% short ratio (these are always a month behind, so probably it's really double that) any good news will send the stock up big time. Oooooh, the Fed's propping up the dollar. We'll see about that when the next big bank goes ker-plunk.

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