Up is Down and Down is Up

More churning in the market -300, +4, -75, etc. Bad stocks (financials, retail, homebuilders) up. Good stocks (tech, commodities) down. The market seems to churn whenever it's near a top or a bottom. I'm thinking of shorting more homebuilders with what promises to be a dismal spring selling season. The homebuilders (ITB) index is up 8% at the moment, and 15% off its 52-wk low. I guess some jokers think that the rate cuts will help people buy more houses. But they didn't read the foreclosure report from Dataquick. California foreclosures are up 430% yoy for the fourth quarter. On top of that, mortgage rates have barely budged from Bernanke's 5.25 to 4.25 cuts. I doubt that the last one will help much.

The thing that makes me jumpy about being long in anything right now, even though I think we're overdue for a bounce is that the whole market has now been throttled. There's nowhere left to hide. Not even in China, or anywhere else. Only treasuries are safe. The 30-yr. dropped to a record low yield today of 4.12%.

Now, here's the scary thing: the futures market is pricing in the chance of another 0.75% cut next week.

Then there's the ECB saying that it won't follow the Fed and lower rates. I think it's time to short the Euro and the Pound and go long the Yen. Europe's consumer spending is in a downturn, and British property prices are dropping.