Falling into Place

As I predicted with help from some insightful minds, the ECB refused to lower rates. However, the future seems less certain, as Germany's economy is also slowing. This move by the ECB has bolstered the Euro, and clearly shows that they mean to slow their economy even more. Short term, this is good for China, long term, it is bad.

So, my question is, when do I short China? Timing is everything. FXI is about 22% off its peak of last year. It's only bounced 9% off the recent low of $160. Then there's this sentiment that the Chinese government won't allow a crash before the Olympics, as if they could prevent one if they tried. It is true that after the Olympics, they might tighten lending more than they already have, but that just tells me that if I wait til then, It'll be too late. The correction that everyone expects will occur after the Olympics will probably occur before the Olympics, with a nice bounce afterward.

Overall, however, it's still tough to time. One of these days, I'll just have to go for it. I mean, 50% of their GDP is foreign investment, and they cannot afford to purchase the value that they add to products. There goes almost all the rest of their GDP. It's all a sham, because 80% of it is not self-sufficient or self-sustaining.