Tuesday, July 17, 2007

Tribune

bought 1 Tribune (TRB) Jan '08 $25 put for 0.90. (TRBME.X)

I'm thinking that if any deal falls apart, it's this one. Last week the L. A. Times announced that cash flow was down 27%. Also, the deal is very sensitive to credit spreads. When the deal was announced, enterprise value was 9x EBITDA. Now, it's about 9.4. Throw in 100bps for borrowing costs and a 10% loss of earnings, and the deal starts getting very shaky.

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