Friday, July 13, 2007

Weakness Spreading

This story confirms that weakness has spread to retail and will continue to spread. "Economists still believe that the economy... will come in at a rate of 3 percent or better in the just completed April-to-June quarter." Hmmm... Three straight bad months of consumer sales data makes me doubt that the data will be good. Much of the number will be a reduction in inventories from the first quarter. However, with consumer spending sinking, that will put further pressure on GDP growth throughout the rest of this year.

Bottom line: as much as it pains me to see RIO go from $45 to $53 after I sold it two weeks ago, I'm staying short and avoiding jumping on the bandwagon for stocks that leverage the dollar's decline. I'm still waiting for a scare causing a temporary flight to quality to give me a good buying opportunity.

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