Tuesday, June 12, 2007

Hedged

I hedged the portfolio 50/50 long short today. I sold Adobe because it doesn't fit into my portfolio no matter which way rates go. Adobe needs an economy expanding faster than inflation and interest rates. If rates go up, the economy will not expand enough to encourage tech spending, and if rates go down, it will be because the economy is in the crapper.

Which it might be soon, as Realtytrac announced that May foreclosures were up 90% year over year and 19% month over month. Ouch. If this is our spring selling season, then the rest of the year will only get worse.

The second and bigger move in my hedge was to buy Ultrashort S&P 500. I was tempted to buy OPX on the chance of a bounceback, but I've gotten to the point where I think it's wiser to stop the bleeding than to go on the offensive. The more carnage the bears wreak, the greater the chance that the bulls will panic and leave the field. I haven't left the field, but I did sue for peace. That will give me a chance to safely watch for a sign of which way the market will go.

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