Monday, May 14, 2007

OPX...

I bought OPX today at the open for $4.02.

Why?
  • They were at 40% of book value because of liabilities in their subprime business. Now that they've sold off those liabilities, they're still 23% below. That makes them cheap.
  • If the yield curve steepens, spreads will move from 30-40 bips to 100-200 and they'll make 3-4 times what they're making now.
  • They're a good hedge against a recession, because rates will be lowered.
  • They pay a 5% dividend.

My target price is book value, of $5.24. When they get to that point, I'll look at interest rates to see if the outlook for lower rates warrants a premium over book.

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