working thesis

Here's my working thesis for the next few months:

The long-term phenomenon of our time is the Yen carry trade. This has provided global liquidity for the past five years.

Inflation and a weak dollar fuel the stock market.

Right now, the main concern is that the Fed may raise rates and strengthen the dollar, but that will probably not dent the trade deficit. The question is where will foreign money go if they cut back on Treasuries?

Nothing except a global recession will stop the market. I see at least a good 3-6 months of nice gains.