Short-term outlook

After two weeks of inflationary data, I see another 4-6 weeks of inflationary, recessionary, etc. data. The first two weeks of December will be the top of the pessimistic cycle, and I hope, presents some great buying opportunities. After that, inflation should slide for most or all of next year.

Until December, I am long the Pound against the Dollar (+ 167 bips since the day before GDP was announced), and long options on Barrick Gold (ABX).

I thought about selling United Airlines (UAUA) at $37, but I don't think oil will participate much in this mini inflationary trend, and so far I've been right. When inflation starts to ease beginning next year, crude should drop like a rock.