Friday, October 27, 2006

Paradox?

How can the housing market be the worst in 35 years, the trade deficit at record levels, GDP growing at a stagnant 1.6%, and consumer sentiment at a 14 month high?

First of all, I believe that the high trade deficit signals strong consumer spending. Second, I believe that inflation is 3.5% lower than it should be. The answer is in how GDP is calculated. I think that GDP is under-reported by a wide margin.

I will research this and post an update later.

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