Why Bonds?
There are plenty of bonds bears out there. The reasons are endless: too much supply, China will stop buying, the deficit is too big, bond prices are too high, and on and on. Here is why I'm a bond bull:
- Consumer demand for credit is plunging, and consumers are 70% of the economy.
- Baby boomers need income. Only 3% of their assets are in Treasuries. Bonds have beat stocks over the last 10 years. Who wants to put $ in CD's?
- Obama's stimulus is almost gone.
- Gridlock is a done deal in 3 months.
- Unemployment is still near record highs.
- Housing is plunging, and housing typically leads the economy.
- Factory orders are plunging.
- Consumer confidence is plunging.
- Leading economic indicators are plunging.
- With GDP set to drop to 0% by the end of the year, aren't real rates juicy? Historically, bond yields have a high correlation to GDP growth.
- Austerity from Europe will start to bite by the end of the year, if not sooner.
- Chinese banks have already reached their lending quotas for the year.
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