Tuesday, August 03, 2010

Why Bonds?

There are plenty of bonds bears out there. The reasons are endless: too much supply, China will stop buying, the deficit is too big, bond prices are too high, and on and on. Here is why I'm a bond bull:
  • Consumer demand for credit is plunging, and consumers are 70% of the economy.
  • Baby boomers need income. Only 3% of their assets are in Treasuries. Bonds have beat stocks over the last 10 years. Who wants to put $ in CD's?
  • Obama's stimulus is almost gone.
  • Gridlock is a done deal in 3 months.
  • Unemployment is still near record highs.
  • Housing is plunging, and housing typically leads the economy.
  • Factory orders are plunging.
  • Consumer confidence is plunging.
  • Leading economic indicators are plunging.
  • With GDP set to drop to 0% by the end of the year, aren't real rates juicy? Historically, bond yields have a high correlation to GDP growth.
  • Austerity from Europe will start to bite by the end of the year, if not sooner.
  • Chinese banks have already reached their lending quotas for the year.
And if I'm wrong? Well, if yields spike, gold will be a perfect hedge.  

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