Treasuries

I think the COT showing specs short 200k+ contracts of the 10-yr T means bonds are more likely to rise than fall short-term. IMO, the use of Treasuries as an opiate necessitates shorting them, paying the minuscule interest, and ploughing into risk trades. When the risk trades fall, the other end of the carry trades will rise (and has risen impressively). Of course, both sides are probably not matched evenly, so I'm gonna be very careful when those short positions start getting covered.

That's the short-term picture. The long-term picture, according to Dave Rosenberg is also favorable to Treasuries. Deflation is non-existent, and demand for credit is low. Corporations have a lot of cash, and consumers are cutting up their plastic and walking away from their mortgages. Plus, the US can always monetize the debt, as they did after WWII by holding rates at 2.5% for years. In which case gold makes for a much better play than shorting T's.