Trades

Short ITB @ $11.30, 10% position

Short QQQQ @ $28.80, added 10% to a 4% position

ITB is trading at 95% of book value, which is absurdly high for a money-losing industry with bubble-year land values. I think it goes back to $8 after Bernanke gets mortgage rates down to 4.5% and it doesn't help much.

QQQQ is at a P/E of 17. That's way too high heading into a deep recession or depression. 20% of QQQQ is AAPL, MSFT, and QCOM. Apple will have a tough time maintaining growth, Microsoft will get slammed by a strong dollar, and Qualcomm will lose big time as emerging market cell phone sales plummet. I think QQQQ goes to $17-18 range, or around a P/E of 10 as most of these companies report earnings contractions over the next couple of quarters.