Wednesday, October 01, 2008

Up to My Eyeballs

I just bought some more stuff: ACI and XGM. It seems to me that these stocks are pricing in a depression. Also, Al told me yesterday that the auto sales numbers are being understated immensely. The auto dealers are having trouble getting credit. They get the cars from the manufacture free for one month. Then they pay 2% per month on the car. What they're doing is selling the car, and not reporting the sale. They pocket the money, and then they pay the 2% per month because it's cheaper than the funding they can get from the banks. There are two ways of looking at this. The first way is that if the dealers go bankrupt, the manufacturer loses the money on the sale and the merchandise. The other way to look at this is that the sales numbers are really much higher than reported, especially for Ford. I think about 20% of GM's dealers are company owned, so their numbers should also be much better. If there's any kind of bounce, I think the bonds will do very well. If they don't they have the $25 billion government bailout to back them up. I take this as a sign that the government won't let them default.

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