Is it Time to Bet against Oil?

Maybe, at least for a short term trade. I was looking at DCR again today. It was at $1.08, with a token NAV of $0.01. It stops trading 6/25/2008. The NAV moves $0.33 for every $1.00 in crude oil. Basically, it's equivalent to a June $120 oil put. Now for the important question: Is that put worth $1.08? Well, NYMEX puts expiring 6/17 are trading for $1.20, so $1.08 for an extra week might be a bargain.

It seems that the consumer is finally feeling the pinch of high gas prices: "March driving down for 1st time since 1979: government." Here's the important data: "data released on Friday showed highway miles driven in March fell 4.3 percent from a year earlier."

Interestingly enough, this gets us back to the oil question. Is the time ripe for a bearish speculative sally on crude oil?

I am very tempted for the following reasons: 1. It just feels like oil is ripe for a downturn. 2. We've been hearing about oil every day for the past two weeks. 3. Oil is being blamed for everything: gas prices, stocks falling, etc. 4. Indonesia is raising the price of gas 33% because the subsidy costs too much.

Well, this is something I will definitely think about on Tuesday and watch the rest of next week.