Wednesday, February 20, 2008

Inflation

Inflation was the word of the day, with gold up to 937 and oil over 101 to a new high. Stocks took off with the release of FOMC notes that revealed that the Fed plans to keep rates low for a long time. This creates blowback inflation pressure on the long bond, of course. However, the deflationary pressures are insurmountable. As economist David Rosenberg correctly pointed out, inflation is always a lagging indicator. Time to buy the long bond at 4.60%. Specifically, I'm looking at TLT calls 4-12 months out.

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