Thursday, August 16, 2007

trade, thoughts

Trying not to jump on the downslide even more. I have to be content with the profits my position will give me. Last night Fed member Poole said that there would be no rate cuts "barring a calamity" because the financial credit crunch hadn't spread to the general economy. It will. Then the Fed will lower rates. I'm beginning to see why the Fed always lowers rates too late. It's because if they provided liquidity to the market now, they would only fuel inflation. None of the liquidity would go to the mortgage market, instead, it would go to something tradeable that has a recent track record of gains such as oil and other commodities.

Bought 2 NFI Sept. $2.50 puts for $0.65 each. Other than that, everything's too expensive. Options are off the charts, the DOW was down as low as 12,500, and the VIX is pushing 37, it's highest level in almost five years. Maybe I'll do some bottom fishing on CNE, which is down to $13, yielding almost 18%.

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